Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.296898 15.192047 17.245194 19.632703 22.330642 25.282815 28.755966
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.604864 13.168031 16.165003 19.919732 24.489573 29.862238 36.649058
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.022826 11.818016 15.249438 19.756695 25.505065 32.573774 41.906976
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.714821 10.597895 14.293949 19.356444 26.084432 34.689891 46.499340
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.870752 9.834731 13.778924 19.378803 27.087233 37.282049 51.737377
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.283072 9.334904 13.535186 19.694546 28.444588 40.367867 57.773088
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.739710 8.827202 13.211039 19.833927 29.518718 43.081412 63.412402
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.189304 8.246268 12.716567 19.662450 30.099598 45.094969 68.138059
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.808273 7.876903 12.488644 19.842953 31.174526 47.842809 74.046023
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.585074 7.726458 12.568626 20.478014 32.949722 51.696200 81.787347
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.195427 7.272081 12.135672 20.271903 33.398526 53.555855 86.584077
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.672881 6.551072 11.218649 19.217388 32.423242 53.142413 87.798266
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.495464 6.402132 11.228599 19.685580 33.947491 56.769039 95.669131
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.323257 6.246831 11.214806 20.110549 35.425344 60.405049 103.769777
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.059318 5.903127 10.849125 19.900319 35.808098 62.255473 109.012750
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.793454 5.531307 10.403398 19.512328 35.849699 63.524356 113.331248
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.614818 5.305331 10.197534 19.529820 36.588912 65.995959 119.808044
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.494522 5.179526 10.162330 19.849602 37.877464 69.469688 128.189662
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.359469 5.012633 10.036804 19.989443 38.840985 72.415464 135.783915
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.196180 4.774722 9.757844 19.816887 39.210010 74.312494 141.586976
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.088828 4.641162 9.668791 19.998666 40.246559 77.454693 149.790700
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.040466 4.626196 9.810652 20.638459 42.189620 82.348849 161.455838
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.903886 4.411676 9.536809 20.430812 42.472962 84.165770 167.458276